Special Report: 8.20.2009

Posted by Web Master on Thursday, August 20, 2009

Electric Vehicles—An Exploration

What a “TED” reporter learned  

Last week, I journeyed to Long Beach, Calif., for the PlugIn2009 conference and show. It was well worth the trip. There are obvious questions here for electrical distributors (and their customers, and their customers’ customers). I’ll try to answer many.

I’ve not become an expert after only a few days. However, I am certain of the following:

1. There was more information presented at this event than I could absorb in the individual sessions that I attended.
   
   
2. There were more sessions of potential interest than I could attend. Six break-out time periods, three sessions each. As we actually did say in my old Brooklyn neighborhood—fuhgedabout!
   
   
3. Something is going to happen here. I’m not sure what; there is a wide range of possibilities. One way of looking at this is that the PHEVs about to be introduced (in 2010) are the stalking horses for the eventual introduction (to the mass market?) of electric-only vehicles. That’s both frightening and fascinating! Why frightening? If this is botched (if participants in the mass market—i.e., John and Mary Doe—decide EVs aren’t worth the time based on what they see next year) it’s not going to be good for anyone.
   
   
4. What will happen probably will not revolutionize the electrical distributor’s business. But it will create opportunities for your contractor customers. It is likely to put the electric utility business under a spotlight; that light might be harsh in some places.
   
5. It’s possible (I can’t possibly be sure after a few days of intense listening) that the “electric vehicle industry” isn’t yet ready for what’s coming in 2010-2012.

PlugIn2009 is from, primarily, the electric utility business. This was the second annual event; next year’s is set for July in San Jose, Calif. (obviously, California is the center of this). EPRI was a prime sponsor, as was a Silicon Valley group that I’d actually previously heard about.

Keynote speaker was Gavin Newsom, mayor of San Francisco, who is running for governor of that state…which to my mind, proves he must have a very, very large hole someplace in his head. Incidentally, Newsom said he drives an EV, and has for years.

While the car companies weren’t numbered among the sponsors, it was impossible to ignore the fact that GM timed the announcement about its new Chevy Volt for PlugIn2009. That must mean something, right?

Gassing up? No, this EV on the show floor of PlugIn2009 is getting a charge via that narrow charging station in the middle of the photo.

HEVs, PHEVs, BEVs, EVSEs, MPG & More
What they’re talking about

We all know that there’s something called a Prius. It’s a vehicle that includes batteries and a traditional (gasoline-powered) combustion engine. The thing runs off the batteries until it can’t. The batteries are recharged every time you step on the brakes—which is why (if you look carefully) you’ll see higher miles-per-gallon (MPG) cited for the Prius for city driving (in which you use your brakes frequently) than for cruising on the highway!

There’s a lot of terminology here. I listened carefully and asked questions of my fellow attendees (many of whom were experts in one or another element of this field). I wrote down every acronym and tried to track it down. Here’s what you’ll need to know:

EV = electric vehicle.

PEV = plug-in EV. This seems to be used as a kind of catch-all term. I saw it a lot.

HEV = hybrid EV. That means the thing has some kind of propulsion system other than electric; in most cases, it’s going to be gasoline. The Prius is an HEV.

PHEV = plug-in hybrid EV. The difference between this thing and the Prius is that you can recharge the batteries, and thus (in theory, anyway) get more miles on the battery than you will driving a Prius. The Chevy Volt is a PHEV. These things still have the “H”—which means they are still hybrids, and still have that “other” propulsion system, which means they still will use gasoline.

BEV—“battery” electric vehicle. Sounds weird? It’s a reference to the fact that this thing ISN’T a hybrid; it’s entirely powered by batteries (no gasoline, no natural gas, etc.).

EREV—I saw this in a presentation from a GM exec, and couldn’t get anyone to explain it. GM calls the Volt an “extended range electric vehicle.” If you think “extended” is an awful lot to make out of a 40-mile range on one charge, well, maybe you’re not alone.

MPG—you know this means miles-per-gallon. What’s interesting is that GM cites 230 MPG for the Volt. That rolls the miles rolled on the battery (40, no gallons) into the figuring, apparently. This supposedly uses the EPA’s MPG computation, but this is controversial.

EVSE—this acronym (Electric Vehicle Special Equipment) is used to refer to the stuff you’ll have in your house (or elsewhere) that you “plug in” to your PHEV or BEV to charge the thing. There’s a lot involved, more than you might think; you’re not going to recharge one of these things with an extension cord.

Note: There’s a lot more to say about EVSEs and charging equipment generally. It’s not here. Look to my blog (www.electricalcontractor.com) in the next few weeks, under the “Scene + Herd” category.

What the EV Business Really Is
…why standards stuff will matter.

Here’s the problem: You’ve got to be a bit of a nerd to comprehend the standards “stuff” in any specialty/niche. I can’t say that I understood much of what I heard (or any bit of it). But it’s easy enough to see why this is so important for the future of EVs.

First, consider the early history of the EV business. According to what I heard, there were three plug types. Some EV charging stations had all three plug types (to accommodate any kind of vehicle that drove in and needed a charge). The automotive folks aren’t interested in coping with that going forward. They want ONE. Seems reasonable, no?

Next, think about what the EV business really is. It’s unique, a convergence of the auto biz, the electric utility business, and standard electrical equipment. It affects how cars are made, how houses (potentially, millions) are equipped/retrofitted, how power is treated as a commodity, and how local utility electrical distribution equipment functions.

It also has the potential to reduce oil imports, make utilities more profitable (without requiring them to build more power-generating stations), and turn wind power into something that actually has a reason to live! Not to mention cutting GHG emissions.
Personally, I found some of this standard stuff familiar, in some ways. Does that sound weird? Hear me out.

First, it evoked (in me) memories of the 1990s in the datacom business, when Cat 5, Cat 5e, Cat 6, and you-name-it was the talk of the town. You do remember that some manufacturers rolled out “Cat X Compliant” products, before the standards were finalized, don’t you? Why? It took so damn long to get the standards into a final form (as these—like the EV stuff—are consensus standards, literally created by committee).

Additionally, I have a specific memory about IEEE 1547. This was the Interconnection standard, which would allow distributed generation units to interconnect to the grid. It took a lot of time to “go final.” I even attended, many years ago, a DOE-sponsored meeting in the D.C. area on the nascent standard.

Essentially, the DOE was trying to help get the process moving forward. But: I left the meeting convinced me that it would never happen! Clearly, there were people dragging their feet. It was open to interpretation whether these folks, who worked for the electrical utility business, had legit concerns—or were working under instructions to make sure this standard saw the light of day at the last possible moment. I left the meeting thinking it would NEVER happen!

That after-the-meeting conclusion proved wrong (but not necessarily because I am an idiot). Just a few months later, the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission—apparently, coming to a similar conclusion!—issued a pronouncement that said to the IEEE P1547 committee members: If you don’t do it, and damn soon, we’ll do it for you!

Guess what? That not-subtle knocking of heads together worked.

EV Standards: There are LOTS of ’Em
…and they’re not rolling out fast enough

Is a knocking of heads together needed in the EV business? Maybe; but I’m not too sure of who is capable of saying what to whom. I attended one session on standards which not only DOES NOT make me an expert, it just gives me enough knowledge to be dangerous. But it was positively dismaying—and in part because of words from a guy working for a familiar electrical manufacturer.

However, here’s what I learned:

• There’s your Society of Automotive Excellence. It’s trying to cobble together a couple of really important voluntary standards that will shape the way EV charging is finalized. Considering that Nissan and GM (among others) are planning to roll out EVs to the mass market before next year ends, things are NOT moving fast enough. Relevant standards: SAE J1772, 2293, 2836, and 2894. You think I’m kidding, don’t you?
  
  
• There’s your NFPA, in the form of the National Electrical Code (Sec. 625). A utility speaker, who put up one doozy of a slide (with all of the key standards on the screen at the same time), said this needed to be modified. He wasn’t specific enough for my taste; but then, he had an awful lot of ground to cover.
  
  
• There’s also IEEE standards involved. I saw reference to IEEE 519, IEEE 1000-3-2, and IEEE 555-2.
  
  
• Don’t forget UL. There’s the UL 2202 standard. I got the picture that these people understand that most U.S. electrical contractors aren’t going to touch a charging station that’s not UL-listed. More on this next week.
  
  
• There’s also something called Smart Energy 2.0, which involved HANs (home area networks). It’s being developed by ZigBee and the HomePlug people. Here’s a look (from 2008) at the initial standard.
  
  
• There’s more; there’s the Smart Grid. It’s going to figure in all of this, if the utilities have any say (and they ARE the fuel suppliers in this scenario). There’s a lot involved in just this piece including:
  
  
• HEVs (the Prius and its rivals) have, so far, been purchased in neighborhood clusters. Yes, birds of a feather DO flock together; but this might not be good for your average local utility. The ute folks think it means future PHEVs will be owned by people living near each other. This will stress the heck out of that neighborhood’s utility distribution lines and transformers, as you and your PHEV-driving neighbor get home between 5:30 and 7:00 each night—and immediately plug in!
  
  
• There are three ways to charge EVs under discussion. One is “trickle” charging (Level I) which takes as many as eight hours (one speaker said up to 12 hours!). Next is Level II, which can take three hours or so. And the third (“fast charging”, or Level III) isn’t really happening yet, but is much nicer to think about—charge your car in less than a half hour.
  
  
• For my money, you could take Level I and fling it out the window; but no one asked me. Obviously, Level II routes more kW to the car at any given moment of time than does Level I. That puts more stress on the utility infrastructure in our neighborhood, doesn’t it?
  
  
• There’s the fact that utilities will implement TOU (time-of-use) rates for residential; they’re going to have to do it in this new EV world. So if you get home from work rapidly and plug your car right in, you’re going to be charged more (on your bill for the utility) than if your EVSE is programmed to start the charge later in the evening (when power rates are lower). But if you’re doing trickle charging, you might need as many as eight or 12 hours to get a full recharge. If you get home after 7 p.m. (as some people do), and leave early in the morning (as some of the same people do)…your EV might not get a full charge (if the utility's higher rates delay the start of that evening’s charging period).
  
  
• And then there’s the simple fact that the Smart Grid isn’t going to be everywhere for a decade (or maybe two). In point of fact, one speaker made reference to the fact that folks in the utility business still can’t come to a basic agreement—right now—on what TSG actually is.
  
  
• Personally, as a person who has worked with electrical contractors and electrical distributors for most of the years since 1979, there’s something in me (an inherent thing) that doesn’t trust the electric utilities. Yes, I know, Exxon is no pleasure cruise; and when BP runs those “beyond petroleum” commercials, you sometimes wonder whether to laugh or vomit.
  
  
• So I don’t trust the oil companies, either. But at least they’ve proven that, if there’s enough profit at stake, they can—most of the time—get enough crude oil refined into gasoline and diesel to power the country’s transportation. In the EV world that the attendees, speakers, and exhibitors at PlugIn2009 are trying to create, the utilities are, as noted, the suppliers of fuel.

Somehow, that makes me queasy. I’ll be more specific next week.

How Do I Make Products for EVs?
An Eaton executive’s pointed question

There’s a lot more to think about here, but I’ve covered the key pieces of the waterfront.

Now, here’s the thing: The PlugIn2009 standards session was organized quite cleverly. The first two speakers were chairmen of the two important SAE committees. The third speaker (the utility guy) summed up some of what they said and went a few steps beyond, covering non-SAE stuff.

Then Ron Thompson of Eaton (he’s business development manager in the electrical group, working out of the Power Distribution Operations—Americas) got up to speak. He brought no slides, but instead paged back to the slide referenced above in (b)—the doozy!

• I wrote down what he said; I write fast, but I probably didn’t get it all. Here are key pieces I heard and scribbled:

• “We’re interesting in entering an emerging market—on a level playing field.”

• “I’ve been participating in [these standards activities] for six or seven years myself. I didn’t really understand everything he had on that slide.”

• Thompson said he was trying to understand “what product can we actually produce” for the PEV market.

• It’s difficult to produce a product that doesn’t have a standard yet…there’s a lot of pressure involved in getting the standards written and balloted—so you [a manufacturer, such as Eaton] can spend money to develop products.”

• Here’s the key statement: “If we analyze all of the opportunities and functionality on [the previously presented] slides, we’d be hard-pressured to figure out how to make a product—and make a profit [from it]…for those of us who represent a for-profit enterprise, this is a risky time [due to the slowly developing standards].”

At one point—I’m sorry I didn’t get his words down precisely—Thompson asked how he could go to his management to recommend production of a specific product (or product line) when some of the standards involved won’t be fully balloted, according to one of the presentations, until some time in 2010. 

More Next Week…

I apologize for being so long-winded, but there was no way to short-shrift this and get the information across. Next week, there will be more here about EVSEs (aka charging stations) and more from PlugIn2009.

 

	Joe Salimando of EFJ Enterprises is a consultant, web content provider, and wordsmith based in Oakton, Va. To contact him, call 703-255-1428. See also The EleBlog.
Personal Disclaimer: The appearance of the ambling pachyderm is indicative of the writer’s obsession with elephants, not his political leanings.
IMPORTANT NOTE: THIS COLUMN REFLECTS ONLY THE OPINIONS OF ITS AUTHOR AND DOES NOT REFLECT THE OPINIONS OR POLICIES OF NAED, TED MAGAZINE, OR THE ADVERTISERS ON THE TEDMAG WEB SITE.