Special Report: 5.7.2009

Posted by TED Magazine on Thursday, May 07, 2009

Perspire Now! Or Sweat a Lot More Later

By Joe Salimando

Recently, I attended a conference on Net Zero Energy Buildings (NZEB), sponsored by ASHRAE. In what follows, I want to cut to the chase.

Why would the federal government and the California state government adopt really tough goals to get to buildings that added nothing (“net”) to grid demand by the year 2020 (new housing in California) or 2030 (new commercial buildings in California)?

Those are just some of the goals.

Seems to me (I’m a liberal Democrat) that governments should not adopt “stretch goals.” American citizens are free to openly express skepticism and disgust with government on all levels. People already expect government to fail; governments that set themselves up for big-time disappointment seem, well, dumb.

[Makes one ask: How the heck did we ever get to the Moon? Right?]

Personally, I believe Obama, Geithner, and Bernanke (two of whom worked in the Bush Administration!) will fail in their attempts to bail the country out of a Depression. If anything, then, a huge increase in skepticism and disgust with government is a sure bet for, say, 2012—and maybe even 2016. Perhaps, even, on through to 2020.

So more disgust is coming. Do the energy people really need to create even more?

As became clear from NZEB conference remarks (and crowd assent), global warming is the reason behind the rush to create buildings that, over a year’s time, give back as much to the power grid as they suck off it.

If global warming is the problem, we should be talking about that, shouldn’t we?

Do Away with Air Conditioning

Facts about air conditioning:

1. It perhaps accounts for 12% of U.S. electricity use. You hear about “building energy use” being a big contributor to greenhouse gas emissions. Here’s a way to strike directly at a big contributor and lop it off!
   
   
2. People can live without it. The human race has gotten by without A/C for 99.9% of its presence on Planet Earth. Heck, 5,000 years ago, only the Pharaoh had fans.
   
   
3. People DO live without A/C, right now, on this planet. Large masses of people, billions. Many live in some very hot places.

In thinking about global warming in 2009, the question is not whether it exists, but if it does exist, how will we humans beat it?

• Answer No. 1 is: We, all 6.5 billion of us, move to the mountains.
  
  
• Answer No. 2: We in the West must prove (right now) to people in the East that we’re very serious about global warming.

Is there a better way to demonstrate that we are serious to the 2.4 billion people living in India and China than immediately foregoing A/C?

This gets to the question that occurred to me during the conference: Are we just mouthing this stuff? Are we willing to “sacrifice” to gain ground on this problem?

Or are we willing to solve the problem only by putting the onus on the rising Asian multitudes?

Bottom line: To take a big (and very dramatic) first step toward ending global warming ASAP, we should throw A/C over the side.

A tentative conclusion, then, would be that we’re NOT serious.

Right?

Canadian Perspective

During the conference, I befriended a Canadian—a real estate industry veteran.

Your experience may not resemble mine, but I notice that Canadians offer a sound North American perspective on many things. For example, I keep hearing that health care in Canada is just awful (rationed, etc.), but I never run into sick-looking Canadians.

Apparently, it’s national policy up there not to allow the sick people to leave the country!

During one session, after yet another speaker offered a gloomy perspective on global warming (as the reason behind Net Zero), a slide showed the population of Planet Earth growing by 2.5 billion people between now and 2050.

The speaker noted that the globe had only 2.5 billion residents TOTAL in 1950. We’re going to add that many in the next 40-plus years. Another dismal comment followed.

My Canadian friend leaned in and whispered: “You notice, no one ever talks about population control as a possible solution.”

Upon reflection, and a bit of research, I did notice that (it takes some time for me to get the point; that can’t be helped). It’s true. With the planet at 6.5-plus billion homo sapiens sapiens, and headed for nine billion in just 40-plus years, and global warming believed (by many) to be a clear-and-present danger, no one IS suggesting we stop having babies.

Is that just a blind spot? Is it a case of more humans = a better planet? Has this got something to do with Religion? Folks afraid of being called racists? I don’t know.

But here’s a clear truth: Solution No. 1 won’t help with problem No. 2. The people reproducing in vast numbers don’t live in places that have A/C.

A/C & Seriousness

I’ve run my let’s-drop-A/C idea by three people:

• College buddy: “Hey, Joe, I live in Ventura County (California). It gets to 113 degrees in the summer. We’d die without A/C.”
  
  
• High school buddy (a conservative): “Are you serious?”
  
  
• Electrical industry buddy: “We didn’t build today’s buildings to operate without A/C, Joe.”

I understand all that. But I also understand basic facts:

1. We could move immediately to Net Zero Energy Buildings in the United States (instead of imposing 2030 deadlines) and not make much of an impact on global warming, if the Chinese and Indians ignore it.
   
   
2. They are joining us in the 21st century. These are people who live in poverty and whose family memories are of living in poverty. They want it (what we have, approximately, in terms of standard of living). At least, that’s the way it looks. It’s hard to blame them, isn’t it?
   
   
3. Why should they give up a promising future if we’re not willing to sweat a little?

And, of course, the Chinese and Indians don’t need to give up their future. They just need to slow down and build their infrastructure out more carefully (more carefully than they are, and certainly more intelligently than we did).

Why should the people of these countries invest more time (and perhaps more money) to build power plants that don’t use coal, to be more careful about how they build out their buildings, and so on?

The answer is: “To avoid the worst-case global warming scenario.”

Next question: Why should they do it if we don’t? If there is a global warming problem, the West has caused, directly or indirectly, most of it.

A California Perspective

Most NZEB conference attendees were engineers (no surprise, given ASHRAE’s membership) and architects. Judging by a show of hands, I would guess maybe 30% were from California.

At some point, I wanted to ask questions of attendees who were from the state:

1. If global warming is indeed a threat, what the heck are YOU doing living in California?
   
   
2. If rising sea levels are a legit thing to worry about, what the heck are YOU doing building ANYTHING in California?
   
   
3. Have you had children? Do you expect THEM to live in California?
   
   
4. If you take science seriously (and thus believe in global warming), don’t you also take seriously the scientific conclusion that “the big one” (the gigantic destructive earthquake) is headed for California in the next few decades?
   
   
5. If that’s a scientific possibility, as is global warming, shouldn’t you (right about now) get the heck OUT of California?

This seemed like obvious stuff to me. I’m NOT neurotic; I’m related to someone who wouldn’t set foot in San Francisco, despite the city’s attractions, because she was sure that “the big one” would happen five minutes after her airplane landed.

That’s not my belief. I know I’m going to die, but I’m not so self-centered as to believe Destiny wants to kill me by killing hundreds of thousands (to millions) of others at the same moment.

However, with the NZEB conference’s constant (direct or indirect) references to global warming, and the technical nature of the audience, I had to get a question out. Finally, I sat next to a (relatively youngish) engineer, a local resident.

During a break, I asked him: “You’re smart. You believe all this stuff, as I do. What the heck are you doing living here? Why haven’t you moved to Montana, already?”

The guy smiled, a bit sheepishly. He said (I am not making this up): “Actually, we’ve already bought land in Montana.”

Bottom Line

If you talk the talk, you’ve also got to walk the walk. As of this moment, while I still have an open mind on whether global warming is human-caused/human-aided, and whether it will lead to a global disaster...

...I’m pretty sure I can’t believe the people who say it’s a problem. At least, not until they join me in my anti-A/C crusade!

	Joe Salimando of EFJ Enterprises is a consultant, web content provider, and wordsmith based in Oakton, Va. To contact him, call 703-255-1428. See also The EleBlog.
Personal Disclaimer: The appearance of the ambling pachyderm is indicative of the writer’s obsession with elephants, not his political leanings.
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