Special Report: 2.3.2010

Posted by Joe Salimando on Monday, February 01, 2010

MUST GLOOM COMETH BEFORE THE BOOM?

An observation on the AGC's recent press blizzard

By Joe Salimando

Three of my grandparents came from Sicily (no, my relatives were not gangster bums -- with a couple of exceptions, both of whom are dead). Sicilians are, it seems, a gloomy bunch. In my neighborhood (where your grandparents were either from Sicily, Naples, or Calabria) it was common to see numerous grandmothers dressed in black, ALL the time. It was not, by the way, because black is slimming.

For those of us born in America, the joke went like this:

Q. "Why do all the Sicilian nonnas dress in black all the time?"

A. "Just in case there is a funeral -- they're ready!"

Not funny? Maybe you had to be there. I was actually there. As a child growing up reading the New York newspapers, I wondered why the only people (besides baseball players) who were commonly referenced in the paper by nicknames were Italians. There was Tony Bender, Three-Finger Brown (yes, a dirty rotten gangster), Fat Tony this and Joey Bananas that.

Why, I wondered (still do) were my people singled out? You never read about Joseph P. Kennedy, scion of all of those presidential candidates and senators, as "Joey The Gin-Runner."

So: I went to the Brooklyn Public Library (a walk of maybe 3/8ths of a mile) and read every book about Sicilian history I could find.

 

Gloom Throughout The Ages

Consider an island that's been invaded and, essentially, loses every battle. We're talking centuries of rule by foreigners. Start with the Greeks, if you like, 2,500 years ago. Fast forward to the Normans, who invaded the island in 1064 -- a practice invasion for the ultimate Norman Conquest of Britain two years later.

One theory about how the Mafia got going (assuming it actually exists . . . ) is that this underground, "invisible" band of goons was actually (at one time) necessary. Why? To impose some kind of control over local events about which the foreign rulers could care less. To continue along these lines, the proudest moment in Sicilian history might have come in 1282, during an event called Sicilian Vespers (vespers are a Catholic thing).

What happened? There was an uprising. According to legend (there are no records, of course), the Sicilians rose and killed every one of the 3,000 French people who were then running the place.

That's one heck of a thing about which one should be proud 728 years later, isn't it?

NOW, you might ask -- why all of this Sicilian, gloomy stuff? Lately, I come to suspect that Ken Simonson, chief economist of the Associated General Contractors of America (and a writer for TED magazine) is some kind of closet or wannabe Sicilian.

 

What Simonson Has Wrought

Consider what this affable, intelligent person has brought to the attention of the public in just the past few weeks.

Only four of 337 metro areas (U.S.) added construction jobs in 2009 (2/1).

Note that the 4-for-337 release was emitted just days after another with this headline: Every state [and D.C.] lost construction jobs during the last year

And THAT one hit the wires less than one month after the cheerier news in a 1/4 release . . . only 324 of the 337 cities posted dire employment figures in 11/09.

In between came the news of an AGC survey of members (some are generals, others are subcontractors): Nearly 90% . . .  say industry will not recovery in 2010. That might not have made everyone suicidal sitting as a press release, so Ken S. went on CNBC to deliver this awful news live and in person.

How about this one, from 1/8: Nearly one in four construction workers are unemployed . . .

 

Good Grief!

Now, I actually LIKE Ken. S. I've heard him speak in person at least twice, and caught him in webcasts from Reed Construction Data (go here for more, they're free). I've been edified over the years from reading of his regular Data DIGest news analyses -- which are now posted here on TED's Index Room, offering you free and easy access.

But really . . . it's a new year, time for Optimism. Or at least some healthy skeptical regard for the Pessimists! Sure, construction is awful right now, but you don't have to go back to 1282 to know that the industry had some really, REALLY good years in 2003-07.

Remember, the easy money that was sloshing around our economy in that period led to overbuilding of almost everything (including, unfortunately, retail sales, debt, and employment). It's unrealistic to expect that the bubble is going to re-inflate. It's not fair to think that the Obama-Geithner-Bernanke-Congress quadrangle is going to reinstate the easy-money-for-all-comers of five years ago (although Benny B. sure seems hell-bent-for-leather on accomplishing just that, doesn't he?).

I believe Ken S. knows all of this and more. But lately, this blizzard of dark information has led me to think about getting him on the phone and singing Look for The Silver Lining.

I've yet not done that because: (1) my singing voice makes frogs cover their ears, and (2) it's a very un-Sicilian thing to do. But NOTE: The key word in that sentence is "yet" . . . !