The Data DIGest: 7.27.2010

Posted by TED Magazine on Tuesday, July 27, 2010

More states add jobs; MHC, AIA, NABE surveys show ongoing (mild) construction dips

Click here for tables and a map showing construction employment by state in June 2010.

    The seasonally adjusted unemployment rate decreased from May to June in 39 states and the District of Columbia, rose in five states and remained unchanged in six, the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reported on Tuesday. Compared to June 2009, 22 states and D.C. had lower rates, 24 had higher rates and four were unchanged. Earlier, BLS had said the national unemployment rate dropped from 9.7% in May to 9.5% in June, the same level as in June 2009. Nonfarm payroll employment increased from May to June in 21 states and D.C., decreased in 27 states and stayed the same in Nebraska and Rhode Island. Compared to June 2009, employment rose in 22 states and D.C. and fell in 29 states. Construction employment increased for the month in 22 states, fell in 26 and remained static in Colorado, D.C. and Montana. Year-over-year construction employment dropped in 44 states plus D.C. and climbed in six states (the largest total since October 2008): Kansas, 7.7%, 4,400 jobs; Alaska, 3.1%, 500 jobs; Arkansas, 2.4%, 1,200 jobs; West Virginia, 2.4%, 800 jobs; New Hampshire, 2.3%, 500 jobs; and North Dakota, 0.5%, 100 jobs. The largest 12-month percentage losses were in Nevada, -2.4% and -19,500 jobs; Vermont, -18.5%, -2,500 jobs; Wyoming, -16.6%, -4,000 jobs; Washington, -14.3%, -22,900 jobs; Idaho, -13.8%, -4,600 jobs; and Colorado, -13.7%, -17,600 jobs. California lost the most jobs over the year, 74,400 (-12.0%). BLS combines mining and logging with construction in six states and D.C. to prevent disclosure of data about industries with few employers. BLS does not calculate industry-specific unemployment rates by state.

   New construction starts in June dropped 3% at a seasonally adjusted annual rate, close to the 4% decline in the first half of 2010 combined compared to January-June 2009, McGraw-Hill Construction (MHC) reported on Thursday, based on data it compiled. Nonresidential building starts increased 9% for the month but slumped 15% year-to-date; residential starts fell 5% in June but rose 23% year-to-date; and nonbuilding construction dropped 13% and 10%, respectively. “The pattern of construction starts can still be viewed as showing low-level stability, although barely, as June came in at the bottom of the recent range of activity,” Robert Murray, vice president of economic affairs for MHC, said in a release. “The improvement shown by single-family housing over the past year has stalled, at least for the present. With regard to nonbuilding construction, the dollar amount of new electric utility projects has retreated, and it appears that the lift provided to transportation public works from the stimulus funding is leveling off. For nonresidential building, the recent pickup in May and now June suggests that the worst of this sector’s decline may be over. However, renewed expansion for nonresidential building on a sustained basis is not likely in the near term, given such ongoing constraints as tight bank lending, eroding state and local budgets, and sluggish employment growth.”

   The Architecture Billings Index, a monthly survey of 700 architecture firms that measures the number of firms with higher billings less those with lower billings compared to the month before, inched up to 46 in June from 45.8 in May, remaining below the breakeven 50 level for the 29th straight month, the American Institute of Architects (AIA) reported on Wednesday. The sub-index for commercial/industrial practices stood at 50.6, little changed from May (50.7) or April (49.6). The residential (mainly multi-family) sub-index was at 46.5; institutional, 45; and mixed practice, 44.7. These readings imply slight further declines or stable demand for design work for future building construction.

   A survey of 84 corporate and trade-association economists released on Monday by the National Association for Business Economics (NABE) found demand increased in the second quarter compared to the first at 52% of respondents’ firms, fell at 10% and was unchanged at 38%, among the 81 who answered that question. The outlook for hiring over the next six months improved for the sixth straight quarter and the outlook for capital spending over the next 12 months improved slightly from the April survey. The outlook for spending on structures over the next year was negative for the eighth consecutive quarter, although less so than before. Among 60 respondents to the question, 13% expected their firms to increase spending on structures over the coming 12 months, 15% expected a decrease, and 72% expected no change.

   The number of hotels under construction in the second quarter totaled 553 projects, down 68% from the peak two years earlier, and 67,641 rooms, down 72%, Lodging Econometrics (LE) reported on Wednesday, based on data it compiled (www.lodgingeconometrics.com). Construction started on 8,600 rooms in the second quarter, down 33% from the first quarter, down 57% from one year ago and down 82% from the peak two years ago. Starts expected in the next 12 months fell 53% for projects and 59% for rooms from two years ago. “For developers, a lack of construction financing from Main Street banks remains a serious roadblock, as it is nearly impossible to access for new hotel projects,” the firm said in a release. In the second quarter, “construction starts for projects already in the pipeline were at the lowest in over a decade and new project announcements into the pipeline continue at very low levels. [Many early-planning projects] have fallen behind scheduled and have been reclassified by developers since they have little chance of getting in the ground in the next 12 months. LE expects total construction-pipeline counts to continue to fall before leveling sometime in 2011.”

   The consumer price index (CPI) for all urban consumers fell 0.1% in June and rose 1.1% compared to June 2009, BLS reported on July 16. The CPI for urban wage earners and clerical workers (CPI-W), which is used to adjust some wage contracts in construction and other industries, climbed 1.4% over 12 months.