For the first time, the Department of Energy has released a sales forecast that includes energy savings for Solid State Lighting, including LEDs, for the next 19 years. Previous forecasts provided details through 2025 and 2030, but the latest report takes a look at projections through 2035.
You can see the entire 95-page report, called the "Energy Savings Forecast of Solid-State Lighting in General Illuminations Applications" here, but we are also providing you with some of the highlights in advance.
The report says LEDs are expected to be a part of 86 percent of all installations in 2035. At the time of the report, which started in 2015, LEDs were in just 6 percent. The biggest markets over that period of time will come from roadway, low and high bay, and A-type light bulbs. The report explains that since so many cities are seeing an immediate cost savings by switching to LED bulbs, it expects to see 90 percent of cities using LEDs by 2025 and nearly every city with LEDs in 2035. The A-type market will move more slowly, with an expected 56 percent LED usage in 2025 and 90 percent in 2035.
A key selling point will be energy savings, which is expected to be around 75 percent in 2035 alone. In fact, the amount of energy saved in just 2035 is expected to equal the amount of energy currently consumed by nearly 45 million U.S. homes, and equals nearly $630 billion.
On the commercial side, the DOE study says it expects to see a steady 10 percent yearly replacement to LEDs due to replacements or renovations. This includes replacements that are not because of the current fixture failed, but simply an upgrade to save energy or improve appearance. Part of the reason for the increase will be the demand for connected lighting and energy management systems.
The report adds that the DOE expects LED lamps will overtake incandescent lamps for commercial use by 2018. But on the residential side, incandescent lamps are expected to remain in control until 2023, and still make up about 16 percent of lighting in 2035. The study says there are certain barriers for the residential market, including the availability and understanding of new technology. Some technologies may be unknown to consumers, while others may not be ready for purchase. Either way, the study says that as products become more established, "benefits will be communicated by word-of-mouth to the consumer base, and manufacturers are able to ramp up production capacity, and stocking distribution channels emerge."